What’s in store for 2012? Item Number: 200000 $0.00

DescriptionSome of you may be asking yourself – “Self, where has Bob been hiding lately?” While it is very true that I have been less prolific in my writing, I can assure you I am still alive and kicking, and as busy as I have ever been. While perhaps not actually putting pen to paper or 2 fingers to keyboard, I have been mentally compiling tons of things to bore you with in the coming months. I can also assure you that I have not been stock-piling canned beans, Vienna Sausages and bottled water in preparation of the Mayan Apocalypse. Hell, if it’s the end of the world, why waste good beans and weenies? If you are so inclined, eat them now and don’t worry about what happens after Dec 21st. And for any of you Brits, by all means eat that spotted dick immediately!

Besides the evident “End-of-Days,” what exciting things might we expect to see in the coming year – as it relates to our strange obsession of collecting ancient baubles? Looking back to what could only be called a schizophrenic (or manic depressive at a minimum) 2011, we have to hope and assume that 2012 will be a little less uncertain. The auction houses saw a combination of very high prices mixed with pass rates of the likes we have never seen before. Last year we had about a dozen items in Christies’ New York and weren’t blown away by the results of any of them. However, had these same items been in Sotheby’s (the really big winner of the year) we may have done far better. We watched on-line as Sotheby hammered prices that made no sense to any save those gazillionaires spending the big bucks.

For the average collector, because the economy may have finally rounded the corner, look for slightly higher prices and dealers less anxious to make deals. If you had cash last year, you were in a position to strong-arm even the larger dealers into making very handsome deals. This year, fewer collections are likely to be dumped on the market, inventory will get a bit tighter and prices will head upward – albeit probably at a slow pace.

On the cultural-provenance front, I have a hard time believing laws can or will get any tougher or the feds will get any more aggressive in their efforts to find illegally imported contraband. However, this is an election year and perhaps for whatever reason there may be a desire to go after the good press one finds when a large bust is made. As we have been preaching for several years now, buy items with good provenance and you will not run into any problems. That being said, if you are the recipient of items coming across international borders, expect delays and a much higher chance that your goods will be scrutinized by your local customs officials. Make proper arrangements before you import! And please – do not ask your dealer to falsify documents to help get your items through customs with lower duties! That opens you both to prosecution!

Like last year, good items in most cultures will continue to increase in price. Egyptian antiquities are still super hot, as are Greek Attic and better quality Greek South Italic pieces. Roman bronzes have done very well over the last year and I expect to see that trend continue. Pre-Columbian art still feels a bit shaky to me, but really good, well provenance Moche and Chavin pieces command high prices as do Olmec and Mayan objects. Chimu blackware and most undecorated pottery from virtually any PC culture will continue to languish in desirability and pecuniary returns.

Fakes will be available everywhere, but nothing new here. I continue to see better and better fake Roman glass, but if it has good REAL provenance that becomes far less likely. eBay has improved, but don’t expect to find many treasures here and if you are looking for bronzes of any kind, the odds are far better that they were made in Bulgaria (in the last year – or less) than that they were made by any ancient metal-smith.

My crystal ball is getting fuzzy and losing its signal, so that’s about all the prognostication I can conjure up today. If you have not bought in a while, now is the time to jump back in. If you have bought from other dealers last year (instead of Artemis), shame on you! Not really, but these public service announcements do not come cheap!

Happy New Year… here’s to safe & fulfilling collecting!
Bob