Could the economy really be turning around? Item Number: 100034 $0.00

DescriptionI have been watching auction results over the last couple of weeks with great interest. I took several courses in economics in college, and while it was not necessarily my strong suit (I did much better in bowling 101), I do remember such things as leading and lagging indicators. Leading indicators are things like the stock market and index of consumer confidence; lagging indicators are things like duration of unemployment and outstanding consumer credit.

Auction results may very well fall into the category of leading indicators, although I doubt if Greenspan or Bernanke look all that closely at this particular indicator. When people start to feel a bit uneasy about the future of national/world/personal economies, it is only natural to reel in spending on luxury items like ancient art. Conversely, when consumer confidence is high, there is no better time to drop some extra cash on the niceties of life, right?

Last year was a great year to buy art at auction – assuming you had plenty of cash to spare. More than one auction house has confided in us that times were really tough, and prices realized were either way down, or all too often, non-existent (and let’s be honest, I don’t think this year started off all that rosy either). Between very soft auctions, very soft show results, and overall rather soft sales, art dealers were definitely feeling the pinch.

But this week, feels different. I am suddenly seeing some signs of change, and either one of two things is happening. First, there is so much pent up frustration from folks who have wanted to spend their money that they could no longer hold off, or people are really beginning to see a bit of light at the end of this very long tunnel we have all been in. I say this because of the result of one auction this week – Arte Primitivo.

Known more for their Pre-Columbian material than anything else, Arte Primitivo is in the middle of a “mixed culture” auction. If by chance you have followed this auction at all, you, too, have probably been amazed at the prices they have been realizing. I watched yesterday as piece after piece sailed though the low estimate, often exceeding high estimate, sometimes by a factor of 2 or 3. Yes, these were nice examples, but they weren’t THAT nice! Four lovely Cocle pieces smashed through their pre-auction estimates; Moche stirrup jars going at 2x estimate; a Cochiti Olla blasting though the high estimate – items in virtually every category doing well. Maybe part of my “amazement” stems from my personal inability to snag any big deals. But the optimist in me (Teresa may say that has become a very small piece of me lately) is hoping that this really is the first sign that we are coming out of a very long slump.

If this is indeed indicative of things to come, auction season may be extremely fun to watch! And did I mention Artemis Gallery’s Live Auction is in 2 weeks? We’ll continue adding new lots this week and beginning of next, so do check back to see what’s new.

Happy auctioning
Bob Dodge